One of the biggest stories emerging from the Far East this month is the imminent launch of a blockchain-based version of the Japanese yen, one of the world’s major fiat currencies.
The timing for this development couldn’t be better, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to raise interest rates soon, a move likely to increase the appeal of both the yen and yen-backed assets.
Earlier this month, CoinDesk reported that Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is likely to approve the country’s first yen-denominated stablecoin as early as this fall. According to the report, Tokyo-based fintech firm JPYC plans to register as a money transfer business within the month and will spearhead the rollout of a JPY-pegged stablecoin, which will trade at a 1:1 ratio with the Japanese yen.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged to an external reference, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, or yen. These tokens play a crucial role by facilitating capital transfers used for trading, investing, remittances, or international payments, all while bypassing the volatility typically associated with other cryptocurrencies.
JPYC is not alone in pursuing a yen-pegged stablecoin. Last week, Tokyo-based financial services company Monex Group announced that it is considering launching its own JPY stablecoin aimed at international remittances and corporate settlements. Oki Matsumoto, Chairman of Monex Group, told local media, “Issuing stablecoins requires significant infrastructure and capital, but if we don’t handle them, we’ll be left behind.”
BOJ rate hike
Both leading bankers and traders expect the BOJ to hike rates in the coming months, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is seen doing the opposite.
Hiroshi Nakazawa, head of Hokuhoku Financial Group, one of Japan’s largest regional banks by assets, said over the weekend that the BOJ could raise interest rates in either October or December, assuming “things go smoothly.”
Shares in Hokuhoku Financial Group have been the best-performing banking stocks this year, with prices rallying 90% to top the Topix banks index, which includes 70 lenders.
Nakazawa’s outlook aligns with the broader market consensus on upcoming rate hikes. According to Bloomberg Economics, the recently released Tokyo inflation report likely reinforced the BOJ’s view that consumer price momentum remains strong, on track to reach its 2% target. The team forecasts a 25 basis point rate hike at the BOJ’s October meeting.
The anticipated rate hike could prompt investors to move funds into JPY-backed stablecoins. Recall that the 2022 Fed rate hike cycle was seen as boosting demand for USD-pegged stablecoins, although the appeal of stablecoins was later temporarily dented by the Terra crash in May 2022.
The BOJ raised rates twice in recent years, from 0.1% to 0.25% in July last year and then another 25 basis point hike in January. Since then, the central bank has kept rates steady.
Japanese yields rise, BTC/JPY drops
Yields on longer-duration Japanese government bonds (JGBs), the third largest government debt market after the U.S. and China, have climbed to multi-decade highs, reflecting fiscal concerns and the strong expectation of an imminent BOJ rate hike.
For example, the 30-year JGB yield recently surged to a record high of over 3.2%, while the 10-year yield reached 1.64%, levels not seen since 2008, according to TradingView data.
Adding to the yen’s appeal is the narrowing gap between U.S. and Japanese 10-year yields, which has tightened to 2.62%, the lowest since August 2022. Because the USD/JPY exchange rate closely tracks this yield differential, a regression analysis by MacroMicro suggests the pair should trade around 144.43, compared to Friday’s level of approximately 147.00.
In other words, the regression analysis points to appreciation in the yen.
The strengthening yen and expected rate hikes also imply downside potential for BTC/JPY. The cryptocurrency pair listed on bitFlyer has already dropped 8% this month, hitting its lowest level since July 9. This recent sell-off has triggered a classic double top bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart.
Technical analysis using the measured move method suggests the double top breakdown could lead prices to fall to about 14,922,907 JPY. This target is calculated by subtracting the height between the two peaks and the interim trough from the trough low, indicating further downside risk for bitcoin priced in yen.
