Key takeaways:
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XRP open interest has dropped 30%, signaling cooling futures activity.
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A fair value gap at $2.33–$2.65 is a key demand zone if selling pressure persists.
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Elevated whale inflows hint at profit-taking, but XRP’s long-term uptrend toward $5 in 2025 remains intact.
XRP (XRP) futures open interest (OI) has decreased by 30% over the past month, falling to $7.7 billion from $11 billion, while prices have retreated from a peak of $3.66. A decline in open interest typically reflects a dip in speculative activity, signaling either profit-taking or waning conviction among leveraged traders.
A similar outcome occurred in Q1, with XRP’s OI plummeting to $3 billion from $8.5 billion, a steep 65% drawdown, with spot prices falling more than 50%. The current setup echoes that trend, though with less severity, suggesting traders could exhibit accumulation once OI finds a new base range.
Technically, XRP has a daily fair value gap between $2.33 and $2.65, making this range a probable demand zone if open interest continues to decline. A moderation in OI often precedes periods of price stabilization or a fresh accumulation phase, which historically has offered attractive re-entry points before renewed rallies.
Importantly, liquidations remain relatively subdued. Only $22 million in longs were wiped out on Monday, and $56 million during the 6% pullback on Aug. 14. Compared to typical washouts in overheated markets, these figures highlight a controlled leverage flush, reducing the risk of cascading sell pressure.
Overall, while the drop in open interest does raise caution, it also leaves room for a price bottom. If XRP holds the $2.33–$2.65 zone, traders may interpret the cooling leverage backdrop as a potential springboard for the next leg higher, rather than a breakdown to new lows.
Related: XRP price fails to overcome $3: Is a breakout still possible?
XRP whale inflows keep price under near-term pressure
Data from CryptoQuant indicates XRP’s recent rally to $3.66 was accompanied by significant inflows to exchanges across all value bands, with the largest activity coming from whale cohorts holding 100,000 to 1 million XRP. Historically, such spikes in exchange inflows have preceded major market tops, as seen in 2018 above $3, in 2021 near $1.90, and around $0.90 in 2023, suggesting that large investors are again positioning to take profits.
At present, XRP is consolidating just below $3 while inflows remain elevated, highlighting near-term selling pressure. If whales continue to offload, downside risk toward $2.6 support zone could materialize.
However, a strong defense of $3 would signal resilience and potentially set the stage for another bullish push. Structurally, XRP’s broader uptrend remains intact. Compared with past cycles, the crypto asset remains in a healthier technical environment, leaving long-term targets above $5 in 2025 well within reach despite short-term volatility.
Related: Gemini flips Coinbase on app store after XRP Mastercard launch
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
