Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira faces fellow ranked contender Mateusz Gamrot in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, prelims at 4 p.m. ET).
Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC) last fought in June in an unsuccessful bid to regain the title, losing to Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout. Oliveira, a Brazilian who has yet to lose in five previous UFC bouts in his home country, is No. 3 in the ESPN lightweight rankings.
The ninth-ranked Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC) has won four of his past five fights, most recently a unanimous decision over Ludovit Klein in May.
ESPN MMA analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith provide their main event predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the fight card.
Lightweight main event
Oliveira is a great opponent for Gamrot. With Gamrot’s pace and grappling abilities, this is a good matchup for him, because I don’t think he’s going to get submitted. So, he can impose his will, wrestle, stay out of trouble and wear Oliveira down for a decision. — Din Thomas
I know comparing common opponents doesn’t always work, but Gamrot beat Arman Tsarukyan and Oliveira lost to Tsarukyan, who is the better wrestler. Oliveira has never been a guy who stops every takedown, and Gamrot has great counter-grappling. Gamrot is able to scramble and stay out of trouble. If he weren’t able to take Oliveira down, this would be a different story, because I think Gamrot would lose on the feet. But Oliveira won’t be able to stop Gamrot’s wrestling, and Gamrot will stay out of submission attempts and just outgrapple Oliveira. — Anthony Smith
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Oct. 9. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Gamrot to win (-105) Stepping up on short notice, Gamrot is getting a career-changing opportunity against Oliveira in a Fight Night main event. Gamrot has the wrestling and pace to stifle and frustrate Oliveira, if he can get the fight to the ground early and often. On the feet, Oliveira is the better striker and carries knockout power, but coming off a KO loss in June, I am not sure his chin can handle much more. Oliveira is a submission ace, but he doesn’t usually get submissions off his back, and that’s where I expect him to be for the majority of this fight. I am taking Gamrot to score an upset.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Men’s bantamweight: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
Jackson to win (-300): If Jackson can get a win in Brazil over former UFC flyweight champion Figueiredo, this could be his coming-out party. Figueiredo is coming off a loss at the hands of Cory Sandhagen, during which he suffered a knee injury, so a fight against a young, hungry Jackson may not be the most friendly matchup for him in his return. Look for Jackson to outstrike and use his speed to take out Figueiredo.
Heavyweight: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
Diniz to win (-130): Unless Pinto can take Diniz down immediately and either submit him or hold him down for 15 minutes, it’s hard to imagine he can beat Diniz in a striking battle. Diniz not only is the better striker, he has fought higher-level competition and won’t be surprised when his opponent tries to take him down from the start. Look for Diniz to defend takedowns early and keep the fight standing en route to his fourth UFC win.
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Álvarez
Alvarez to win by KO/TKO: Alvarez will be jumping into the 170-pound division, and what an addition he could be. Alvarez is a well-rounded fighter and an incredible striker with KO power. He takes on seasoned veteran Luque in what should be a fun fight — for as long as it lasts. Luque will try to take down Alvarez, but I don’t see him finding much success, forcing him to stand and trade punches in hopes of outstriking Alvarez. Ultimately, I think the pressure and power of Alvarez will be too much for Luque, and Alvarez will get the early finish.
