Roman Dolidze meets Anthony Hernandez in a main event matchup of streaking middleweights at UFC Fight Night on Saturday at UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+; prelims at 4 p.m.).
Dolidze (15-3), No. 10 in ESPN’s 185-pound rankings, has won three fights in a row, most recently a unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori in March.
Hernandez (14-2, 1 NC), who is unranked by ESPN but recently was in the top 10, is on a seven-fight winning streak. His latest victory was a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen in February. Prior to that, he had four straight finishes. Dolidze and Hernandez were booked to meet last year, but the fight was canceled after Hernandez injured his hand. ESPN MMA analyst Din Thomas provides his main event prediction, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the fight card.
Middleweight: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez
Prediction: Dolidze by submission.
I’m sticking to my underdog pick, even though I can’t trust Dolidze sometimes. He’s not always the most cerebral fighter, but I think he’s got the best guard in MMA. If he gets taken down, it’s not a big deal. He doesn’t even need to fight the takedown, because when he’s on the canvas, it only presents new problems for Hernandez. Dolidze’s guard is going to give Hernandez some problems. — Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Aug. 7. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Hernandez to win (-350); over 2.5 rounds (+160). Riding an impressive win streak, Hernandez enters this match against Dolidze as the heavy favorite. If you like the price for Hernandez, make him the anchor in your parlay. Otherwise, take Hernandez to win and the over at 2.5 rounds. The price on this outcome will get the number down drastically. As good as Dolidze has been during his own win streak, I don’t know how he can win this fight. Unless he is able to knock out Hernandez early, I expect Hernandez to set a chaotic pace that will slow down Dolidze as the fight progresses. If a finish happens, I would look for it in Round 4 or 5.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Men’s bantamweight: Steve Erceg vs Ode’ Osbourne
Erceg to win by submission or decision. “Astroboy” Erceg comes in as a huge favorite over Osbourne. Erceg is on a three-fight losing streak, but he fell to three of the top five flyweights in ESPN’s divisional rankings in No. 1 Alexandre Pantoja, No. 5 Kai Kara-France and No. 4 Brandon Moreno. Erceg, who is fighting Osbourne up at 135 pounds, should be able to get back in the win column on Saturday. Erceg is the better striker in this matchup, but he does have to watch out for the power of Osbourne, who is coming off a knockout win over Luis Gurule in April. Erceg’s biggest advantage will be on the ground, where Osbourne has struggled tremendously.
Featherweight: Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili
Rodriguez to win (-235); over 1.5 rounds. Six of Rodriguez’s eight UFC bouts have ended in decision, and on Saturday he takes on a seasoned vet who is durable and can keep up a fast pace. However, I think Fili is on the downside of his career, while Rodriguez is still growing. Look for Rodriguez to push the pace and lean on his grapple-heavy approach, taking away any chance Fili has to land a knockout punch. Taking Rodriguez to win and the over at 1.5 rounds will bring the line down significantly.
Welterweight: Gilbert Urbina vs Uros Medic
Urbina to win (+325). Medic is a huge favorite — even though he is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Punahele Soriano in January. Urbina has shown at times he can be an absolute monster, and Medic has not done well with pressure applied. Urbina also will have the advantage in wrestling, if he can manage his gas tank properly. So do I think Medic should be the favorite? Sure. But this big? No way. I am going to take a flier on the big underdog, who I think actually has a path to victory.
