Who would ever have thought Northern Ireland would be so thankful for the Nations League?
Infamously, it took the side four years to register a first victory in the competition, their 2-1 win over Kosovo at Windsor Park in September 2022 coming at their 15th attempt.
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Yet now, thanks to their table-topping showing in the most recent iteration in 2024, the side are just two games from a first World Cup appearance for the country in 40 years.
That their spot in March’s play-offs was determined by their own performances over a year ago, and then by Croatia’s 3-1 win over the Faroe Islands almost 500 miles away in Rijeka on Friday evening, left an odd feeling at the end of the 1-0 loss to Slovakia in Kosice.
Manger and players were clearly frustrated by both their own and the referee’s performance but, beyond seeding implications, the end result was the same – a spot as one of 16 teams who will be in the running for the final four World Cup places come March’s play-offs.
When the clock struck 90 minutes in Slovakia, the visitors were on course for a point that would have left them in pole position for second spot and qualifying from Group A’s own spot in the play-offs without the need to rely on their Nations League success.
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Had they held on, or had referee Istvan Kovacs ruled out Tomas Bobcek’s injury-time winner for a push on Daniel Ballard, it would not have changed the reality that this was their worst performance of what has been an otherwise encouraging campaign.
Such an outcome always felt a distinct possibility given their notable absentees for the game.
In Kosice, Shea Charles was a massive loss but nobody who has watched Northern Ireland during O’Neill’s second tenure would have expected anything less.
Brad Lyons and George Saville performed determinedly in the middle of the park throughout but arguably, outside of Conor Bradley, there is no player more important to the cause than the classy Southampton midfielder.
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Not to say that Northern Ireland have not tested the theory through the campaign.
The side have been without Bradley and Ethan Galbraith for a game apiece because of suspensions while, when all is said and done, Sunderland centre-back Daniel Ballard will have played in just three of the six fixtures.
Throw in Ali McCann’s absence for this window, and the fact that first-choice goalkeeper Pierce Charles has missed the entire campaign, and you get a sense of how O’Neill’s depth has been tested.
It is surely no coincidence that their strongest performance – the 2-0 home win over Slovakia last month – was produced by their strongest team on paper.
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“The one thing we’ve learnt during this campaign is that you can lose a player at a moment’s notice,” said O’Neill.
“You’re never in control of that, but hopefully come March, the challenges we’ve had through this group with players missing, we’ll not have and we’ll be as strong as we can be.”
Northern Ireland were without key midfield duo Shea Charles and Ali McCann in Slovakia [Getty Images]
Regardless of the personnel and any gripes over refereeing decisions, O’Neill will be disappointed by the nature of the goals his side have conceded.
Three of the five goals shipped across their defeats through the campaign have been from set-pieces, including both in the past two, a pair of 1-0 losses.
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On Friday, even after the contentious moment with Ballard, goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell could not deal with the ball into the box, leaving Slovakian replacement Bobcek needing only to tap into an empty net to secure a crucial three points for his country.
It was not the first time Northern Ireland had struggled with crosses into their box from set-plays during the game with Slovakia seeing two goals chalked off for infringements in the box following wide deliveries.
“It is an absolute shocker of a goal to concede,” said former Northern Ireland midfielder Jim Magilton on BBC Radio Ulster.
“It was a poor decision by the keeper and, on the balance of play, Slovakia deserved to win. You are not going to get three VAR decisions in one night.”
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‘The away form has been poor’
If there remains a box to be ticked for this young team, it is a competitive result away from home against a notionally better side.
Since O’Neill’s return, there has been a friendly win over Scotland at Hampden Park, but in terms of qualifying victories away from Windsor Park, it is just the 2-0 triumph over San Marino in March 2023 and September’s 3-1 result in Luxembourg.
“Slovakia away from home is always difficult, given their record,” Magilton added.
“The away form has been poor and it stands out. You do not lose that game. Even when you are not playing well, you do not lose the game.”
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Knowing their play-off will now be away from home against a top-seeded team, a group that is likely to include the likes of Italy, Poland and Turkey come Thursday’s draw, O’Neill believes his side can draw on their experiences of travels across recent years, even the negative ones.
“Every time you step onto the pitch as an international player, you learn and that’s valuable,” he said.
“The more international football we can get into these boys, the better they’ll become.
“We’re probably well ahead of where we thought we’d be at this point of time.”
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For now the question becomes how much further down the track they can be when their World Cup fate will be decided in four months’ time.
