-
Jeremy Fowler
The afternoon of Friday, July 26, 2024, came alive with a big splash: the latest NFL quarterback megadeal. For the Miami Dolphins, the news held a deeper meaning that money couldn’t quantify.
Miami, maligned at the quarterback position for decades, had a starter it could trust. Tua Tagovailoa’s four-year, $212.4 million extension — including $167 million in guarantees — signified stability for which the franchise was starved. Miami started 21 quarterbacks between Dan Marino’s retirement after the 1999 season and drafting Tagovailoa in 2020. The Dolphins lauded the deal for Tagovailoa, who led the NFL in passing (4,624 yards) in 2023. Then-general manager Chris Grier said the team’s key figures were “strong believers” in him and forecasted how Tagovailoa would validate the investment.
“The way he’s attacked this and wants to be great, and the combination of Mike [McDaniel] and working with that and that trust and belief in each other, we do think there’s still another level,” Grier said in a statement.
Seventeen months later, the Dolphins have cratered toward their second consecutive losing season, Tagovailoa is on the bench due to uninspired play and Miami fans long for those heady days from that summer. Benching Tagovailoa will have a ripple effect for the team (and its payroll), the player and a league that must proceed with caution when considering the next good but not great quarterback eyeing $50-plus-million per year on a new contract.
Sorting out the mess will take time. Miami is trying to finish the season on a winning note and must hire a general manager in the offseason. ESPN reached out to sources around the league to try to make sense of the situation.
Why has Tua’s level of play fallen?
Some evaluators saw a quarterback who, at 27, was aging too quickly. Despite a concussion history that made him cognizant of taking too many hits, Tagovailoa once thrived when coupling his throwing anticipation and accuracy with just enough mobility to keep defenses honest. He had good enough footwork and twitch to be mobile and make plays out of structure. One veteran NFL scout, however, noticed that Tagovailoa “wasn’t as twitchy or explosive as he was a year and a half ago. His feet and quickness were good enough and could help him compensate for [a] lack of elite ability. You don’t see that anymore. He’s gotten comfortable.”
Off the field, Tagovailoa remained a fixture in the building and his work ethic didn’t appear to be a major issue. On the field, he was missing too many open receivers. The play on the field reflected that. Tagovailoa ranks 30th in QBR (36.7) this season, a spot below New York Jets starter Justin Fields. In the previous two years, Tagovailoa ranked 10th (2023) and 15th (2024). He was also careless with the ball this season (15 interceptions in 14 games) and was not a good mover.
To be sure, Tagovailoa’s durability issues and concussion history could have affected him. One NFL personnel evaluator wondered whether the pressure to stay healthy took a toll mentally. Grier was blunt after the 2024 season that Tagovailoa’s availability was an issue. That can cause a player to take fewer chances — which was potentially on display in the second quarter of the Week 15 loss in Pittsburgh, where Tagovailoa scrambled for one yard on a third-and-2. He looked hesitant, not selling out for the first down in a December game with playoff hopes still alive.
Others see a more simplistic problem. “I saw a quarterback who couldn’t play football after his first read,” an NFL defensive coach who prepared for him said. “And then he was on the interception train damn near every week.”
What’s his dynamic with Mike McDaniel?
The decision to bench Tagovailoa was solely McDaniel’s, a team source told ESPN, and was not made with 2026 in mind. McDaniel has been adamant about making decisions solely based on the current week of preparation and the upcoming opponent.
At best, McDaniel’s support of Tagovailoa — which had been strong dating to when McDaniel took the job in 2022 — has waned. At worst, he’s completely done with the quarterback.
One NFC exec believes it’s probably the latter.
“If you still believe in McDaniel, which it seems like [Miami] might, then give him a new quarterback to work with,” the exec said. “He’s still one of the better offensive coaches in the league.”
By all accounts, the two maintained a professional relationship throughout. But after 55 regular-season games together, McDaniel has all the sample size he needs to make determinations about Tagovailoa and his viability moving forward.
McDaniel said last week that he wanted “convicted play” at the quarterback position. The Dolphins felt they were leaving chunk plays on the field. Driving the ball downfield had become a problem. Tagovailoa’s 6.9 yards per attempt ranked 19th among NFL starters with at least 10 starts this season.
Playing Quinn Ewers over the final three games gives McDaniel a chance to evaluate a potential option for 2026 and show he can maximize the skill set of a late-round pick. This can be perceived as self-preservation or the assured move of a coach who believes he has tenure.
The leaguewide belief is that McDaniel had a say in the Dolphins’ decision to extend Tagovailoa and also needs to wear some of the quarterback’s failures.
What would a Dolphins-Tua split entail?
Most league executives consulted for this story believe the Dolphins will explore the option of parting with Tagovailoa.
That conversation starts and stops with his contract, which includes $54 million in guaranteed money in 2026. He gets an additional $3 million in 2027 guarantees if he’s on the roster on the third day of the new league year. Either way, that $54 million is ironclad, and problematic for the team.
“Cutting him doesn’t help them financially,” an NFC executive said. “I would think that they try to trade him first, but he very well could be on the roster next year.”
That’s the sentiment many share: Trading a benched quarterback with durability issues and a $54 million price tag will be a major challenge.
Added an AFC exec: “They are almost stuck with him.”
Even if a trade’s the cleanest path for Miami — the Dolphins would shed the guarantees while saving $11.2 million on the cap and absorbing a $45.2 million dead money hit if he is dealt before June 1 — that doesn’t mean a team wants to make a deal, even if Miami offers to pay down a large portion of the guarantee.
One personnel executive with an NFL team believes the Dolphins should and will pivot to releasing Tagovailoa if trade attempts fail.
“They should follow the Broncos’ blueprint with Russell Wilson and just rip the Band-Aid off,” the source said. “They seem very obviously done with him.”
Denver famously absorbed $85 million in dead cap by releasing Wilson on March 4, 2024, only to make the playoffs in back-to-back years. But Denver also needed to move Wilson so a $37 million guarantee in 2025 wouldn’t trigger. Miami doesn’t have that problem. Tagovailoa’s contract does not have 2027 guarantees on it as of now; just the $3 million trigger in March. That wasn’t the case for all of the quarterbacks who signed megadeals in 2024. Jacksonville guaranteed $29 million of Trevor Lawrence’s 2027 earnings upon signing in June 2024.
Are the Dolphins stuck with $99 million of dead cap money if Tua is released?
Sort of. If the team designates him as a post-June 1 release, it can spread that cap money over two years, resulting in $67.4 million in dead money on the books in 2026, $11 million more than he would currently account for. The remaining $31.8 million in dead cap would hit the books in 2027. If the Dolphins released him outright, without a designation (pre-June 1), then the $99.2 million in dead cap falls on the books this year, along with an additional $42.8 million cap hit.
Those numbers are big enough to make any front-office cap exec shudder. Miami already ranks sixth in projected 2026 dead salary cap at $35.5 million, and it has negative $2.9 million in projected cap space. Releasing veterans such as Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick would save the Dolphins nearly $37 million in space, more than enough to get compliant and handle Tagovailoa’s post-June-1 release. Hill’s contract alone would save Miami $23.65 million in space if released.
As difficult as it is to part with an elite talent such as Hill, it seems necessary considering the team’s cap constraints, Hill’s recovery from a severe knee injury and his age (turns 32 in March). This allows Miami to continue building the passing game around 27-year-old Jaylen Waddle, whom the Dolphins did not trade at the deadline despite pushes from multiple teams.
Is there any outside interest in Tua this offseason?
It’s possible but hardly assured.
“I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my starter if I needed one,” an NFC executive said.
“Will depend on free agency and the draft,” added an AFC exec about whether a team would absorb his contract via trade. “And certainly not at the full dollar amount.”
That implies that Miami could heavily ease the acquisition of Tagovailoa by paying a large portion of the $54 million. Even if the Dolphins have no choice but to do so, logical homes are not easy to find.
Teams that could need a new quarterback include the Jets, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers. But several of those teams either have a bridge option already on the roster or have a passer on a rookie contract who they would like to evaluate further. In fact, New York might be the only team from this group that unequivocally needs a new starter, and the Jets have two first-round picks in the coming draft with three more in 2027.
The good news for Tagovailoa is that the quarterback market produces unpredictability. Last offseason, 10 teams changed full-time starters. Derek Carr’s retirement and Geno Smith’s trade to Las Vegas were among the surprises.
Based on his Pro Bowl work, Tagovailoa would have a case as the No. 2 free agent quarterback available if released, behind Daniel Jones, whom the Colts will likely attempt to re-sign. But that’s a generous No. 2.
“If I was looking for a quarterback for a bad weather team, I wouldn’t have much interest in him,” a high-ranking personnel evaluator with an NFL team said. “The play hasn’t been good enough and you can’t trust him to stay healthy. If you’re playing in a warm climate or indoors and you have an offense with elements of a quick passing game and play-action, you can make it work for a year.”
What does all of this mean for the 2026 Dolphins?
In the big picture, it’s possible the Dolphins don’t truly know the answer. As one team source stressed, “We don’t even have a GM yet.” Interim general manager Champ Kelly will make his case for the full-time job after the season. But who controls that position next year is not clear-cut yet. Teams noted that senior vice president of football and business administration Brandon Shore was a prominent voice and figure as the Dolphins navigated the trade deadline, which makes some around the league wonder whether he will be influential in the team’s direction moving forward.
2:19
Stephen A. reacts to Tua Tagovailoa being benched by the Dolphins
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Dolphins had to bench Tua Tagovailoa.
McDaniel’s future will crystallize soon enough. The four-game win streak through November and December helped McDaniel’s case. Still, owner Stephen Ross must decide whether the status quo is acceptable or if a shake-up is needed. Ross is a fan of McDaniel, but he’s watching a 6-9 team that just got blown out by a subpar Cincinnati Bengals squad at home.
It’s acceptable to surmise that the Dolphins must exhaust all quarterback options, whether they keep Tagovailoa or not. The Dolphins will likely comb the draft for potential passers.
The Dolphins are currently slated to select 10th in April, in range for one of the top quarterbacks. Or they could wait until 2027 if they like that quarterback class better.
“If they keep Tua, they need to get real competition for him,” an NFC scout said. “Maybe that will bring the best out of him.”
