-
Liz Loza
“Time is a thief.”
I learned this phrase in elementary school. It was regularly uttered by an administrator who, on the first day of school, would wistfully greet the student body, marveling at how much each child had grown over the summer. As a 10-year-old kid, I didn’t put much stock into the musings of a middle-aged vice principal. Decades later, however, I better understand and appreciate the sentiment of her words.
That doesn’t mean that I agree with them, though. Time isn’t a thief. It’s a construct. Used as a marker to help humans add structure and perspective to their lives. Time doesn’t steal anything from us. It simply flows, forcing us to acknowledge that everything is temporary and that nothing is permanent. That can be an exhausting proposition with which to contend. It’s why we want so desperately to cling to the highs but are simultaneously grateful when the lows subside.
I have had one of the best summers of my adult life. It was stuffed with freedom and adventure and pleasure. I would have loved to have languished in the joy of it forever. But that’s impossible. Instead, I’ll attempt to carry as much sweetness as possible into the next season, looking back on the past handful of months with thanks and fondness while understanding that the shift ahead is just as fleeting and potentially enjoyable. While the responsibilities will be greater and the stakes increasingly intense, there’s still room for plenty of “hell yeah” moments. The only catch is my willingness to stay nimble and ensure their delivery.
It’s not so different in fantasy. Building on last week’s theme of ignoring the “rules”, many of us just crafted our dream (dream) teams. We dug into facts and trusted our feelings, and are now asked to repeat that cycle for 17 (or 18, for you weirdos) weeks, knowing full well that we have a 1-in-10 (or 12 or however many are in your league) chance of winning the whole damn thing.
The optimism that is currently coursing through our veins will soon be zapped by soft-tissue issues and poor playcalling. And it’s going to suck. But we also know that the waiver wire and dart throws and some good ol’ fashioned luck can buoy our squad(s) and restore our delight. Because nothing is permanent and everything is worth the experience.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Talk about players coming off of a high, Mayfield put together a career effort, throwing for 4,500 yards (QB3) and 41 TDs (QB2) in 2024. His roll may slow this go-around, but it’s unlikely to stall out in Week 1 of 2025. The books are expecting a high-scoring affair at Atlanta, as this is one of three games carrying the second-highest game total of the week at 47.5 points at ESPN BET. That suggests a lot of opportunities and subsequent production for Mayfield.
While injuries to Chris Godwin and Cade Otton might suppress Mayfield’s efficiency somewhat, the 30-year-old has proved he can produce with backups, posting high-end numbers when Godwin and/or Mike Evans were sidelined in 2024. The matchup at Atlanta figures to additionally work in Mayfield’s favor, as the Falcons allowed nearly 20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (fourth most) last season. Managers who scooped up the Bucs quarterback in the sixth round are justified in expecting a top-seven positional performance from Mayfield come Sunday.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Conner might have a reputation for being injured, but he has suited up for at least 13 games in each of his past five seasons. Moreover, he’s been a stalwart producer for Arizona, clearing 1,000 scrimmage yards in each of his four campaigns with the Cardinals. That’s a large part of why he figures to eat on Sunday. Healthy at the moment and a proven primary ball carrier, Conner is projected to touch the ball upward of 16-18 times, making him a top-15 fantasy play at the position.
Interestingly, Arizona is the third-biggest favorite in Week 1 with a spread of 6.5 points. While that could mean some run for second-year rusher Trey Benson, it also increases the odds of Conner’s involvement. Assuming game flow works in his favor, the 30-year-old, who was RB11 in yards per touch with an average of 5.3 last year, should log an efficient showing at New Orleans. The Saints allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs in 2024. Start Conner while you can!
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears: The unveiling of Ben Johnson’s offense in Chicago is one of this week’s most anticipated story lines. Most of the chatter has surrounded Caleb Williams and his extensive receiving corps. Yet, questions remain about the backfield. Lest anyone forgets, Swift repped the Lions in Johnson’s first year as Detroit’s offensive coordinator back in 2022. It’s worth noting that the former Georgia standout recorded a mere two games of 15 or more touches in that season. While I firmly believe Swift will capably handle the RB1 duties in Chicago, the involvement of Roschon Johnson and potentially Jamaal Williams should be monitored.
More pressing than the volume is the matchup versus Minnesota. The Vikings allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (1,588) in 2024. That doesn’t bode well for a player who averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year and has only once topped 4.6 YPC over his five-year career. It’s additionally worth noting that the Monday night tilt presents one of the lowest game totals of the week at just 43.5 points. As such, managers need to temper their expectations and brace for low-end RB2 fantasy numbers from Swift to start the season.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns: The Browns’ QB carousel figures to be in full rotation throughout the year. Right now, however, Joe Flacco is the team’s starter under center. That’s great news for Jeudy and his fantasy investors. Flacco has made 11 starts in his last two seasons, and in those 11 starts, his top-scoring WR has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game. Moreover, at least one receiver has registered 12 or more fantasy points in all 11 starts.
Given the team’s lack of receiving depth, Jeudy figures to eat. Factor in the likelihood of the Browns chasing points versus the Bengals (+5.5) and the 29-year-old should draw upward of eight to 10 looks. That sort of volume places Jeudy in sneaky/solid WR2 contention. He is the ESPN consensus WR17 heading into Week 1.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos: Coming off of an impressive 81-catch, 1,081-yard, 8-touchdown season, Sutton inched up draft boards, closing out the summer with an ADP of WR25 (63.4). Excitement about Bo Nix’s development has heightened the veteran wideout’s ceiling. In Week 1, however, fantasy investors should expect more from his floor.
The Broncos are the biggest favorites (8.5 points) of the week. With Sean Payton at the helm, that suggests a more run-focused approach versus the Titans. Given the makeup of Tennessee’s defense, which allowed the fewest receiving yards (3,216) and the seventh-most rushing yards (2,277) last year, that’s probably the best strategy regardless.
Likely to be pestered by L’Jarius Sneed for the bulk of the contest, Sutton figures to face additional hardship. While Sneed suited up for the Titans just five times last year, he was effective while on the field. In fact, only two wide receivers managed 11 or more fantasy points over that five-game span. Additionally, Sneed managed to keep a single wideout in his coverage from clearing 70 yards and just two receivers brought down five or more passes. It’s therefore reasonable to expect high-end flex (rather than solid or even low-end WR2) fantasy numbers from Sutton in the season’s first showing.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers: A testament to grit and patience, Pearsall appears on the precipice of a massive breakout. He is, after all, the 49ers’ undisputed No. 1 WR. Don’t believe me? Here’s a look at San Francisco’s wide receiver room: Jauan Jennings (dealing with a theoretical calf injury, did not practice for the entirety of August, wants a trade and is TBD for Sunday), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (released by Seattle in late August, signed to the 49ers practice squad, promoted to the active roster this week), Brandon Aiyuk (on PUP list), Demarcus Robinson (suspended for PEDs), Trent Taylor (on IR), Jacob Cowing (on IR), Jordan Watkins (a fourth-round rookie dealing with high ankle sprain) and Skyy Moore (acquired via trade two weeks ago). Talk about an opportunity!
Furthermore, the matchup at Seattle is exploitable. Admittedly, Mike Macdonald acquitted himself as a bright defensive mind with the Ravens in 2023. And there’s a fantastic chance that Seattle’s defense takes a leap in 2025. But that process figures to take time. After all, the Seahawks allowed the sixth-most receiving scores and the fourth-most yards after the catch per reception to opposing WRs last year. Given that the strength of Kyle Shanahan’s system relies on using high-YAC players while taking into account Pearsall’s athletic profile, the second-year player should shine on Sunday.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions: With Ben Johnson no longer in the building, it’s unlikely that LaPorta will replicate his 2023 numbers. And while the tight end’s overall results dipped (in part due to Jameson Williams’ growth), his production, undeniably, ramped up down the stretch of last season. Given the matchup at Green Bay, there’s a solid chance that LaPorta can kick off 2025 similarly to where he closed out 2024.
The books are projecting some serious ping-pong from this tilt as one of the other games with a 47.5 point total. That suggests a solid number of targets for LaPorta, who should additionally emerge as a trusted safety value for Jared Goff whilst the QB is being hunted by the newly acquired Micah Parsons. Even if the former Cowboy enters the season rusty, the matchup remains a plus, as the Packers allowed the sixth-highest catch rate (76%), the 10th-most catches and ninth-most yards to opposing TEs last season. Consider LaPorta a top-5 fantasy play at the position to kick off the season.
Follow Liz on social here.
