England will enter the 2026 World Cup as one of the favourites, but their pathway through the group stages is about to be revealed.
The World Cup draw is to be held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. on Dec. 5, with 48 teams divided into 12 groups of four.
It is one of the most important dates in the calendar for Thomas Tuchel’s side, who will also find out when and where they will play the World Cup, which could be anywhere from Vancouver to Guadalajara as the tournament is hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.
But who can England draw … and what are the best and worst-case scenarios on paper?
How does the draw work?
The 48 teams or placeholders will be divided into four pots of 12 teams, using the FIFA World Rankings list published Nov. 19. Each World Cup group will consist of one team from each pot.
The hosts — United States, Canada and Mexico — will be placed in Pot 1, as always, and have already been assigned to specific groups. The top nine countries will join the three hosts in Pot 1, with the next 12 in Pot 2, and so on.
That seems straightforward, but there are some rules:
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Teams in the same pot cannot face each other in the group stage.
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Teams in the same confederation cannot be drawn in the same group, barring those in UEFA who can be drawn where a maximum of two European sides can be drawn per group.
Below are the pot assignments.
What’s the best draw England can get?
England are in Pot 1, so they will definitely avoid the world’s best teams — Spain, Argentina, France etc. — for at least the group stage. It also, in theory, means that England should be favourites to win their group no matter who is in the group.
However, there are a few scenarios that would make England fans feel a little easier heading into the tournament.
Based on FIFA rankings, Iran (ranked No. 20), Austria (No. 24) and Australia (No. 26) are the easiest possible opponents from Pot 2 — England’s combined record against those sides is 17 wins, five defeats and six draws, with their last loss against any of them coming against the Socceroos in February 2003.
Pot 3 includes potentially favourable matchups against Saudi Arbia (No. 60), Qatar (No. 51) and Uzbekistan (No. 50), while Pot 4 could see England drawn against Haiti (No. 84) or World Cup newbies Curaçao (No. 82).
England could also face the winners of the European playoffs and intercontinetal playoffs, meaning a potential matchup with New Caledonia (No. 149) or Suriname (No. 123), should either of them defy the odds and book their ticket at the World Cup.
What’s the worst possible draw for England?
As mentioned above, England will fancy their chances of winning their group no matter what happens at the draw. That being said, there are some scenarios that England fans would undoubtedly deem tougher than others.
Based on FIFA rankings, the teams that Tuchel and co. will want to avoid in Pot 2 will be Croatia (ranked No. 10) and Morocco (ranked No. 11). Both would pose a threat to England — Croatia have finished second and third, respectively, at the past two tournaments, while it was Morocco who they beat in the third-place playoff in Qatar.
Uruguay are another potentially difficult opponent, with a team that boasts a number of players at Europe’s major clubs.
From Pot 3, the teams to avoid are a little more subjective. Norway (No. 29) are the third-highest rank in the pot, but the prospect of facing Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard in North America is far from a cakewalk.
Scotland, who at No. 36 are technically middle-of-the-pack in Pot 3, are another difficult potential tie where the the old rivalry would add another layer of pressure.
History would suggest so too, with England and Scotland holding each other to a 0-0 in the Euro 2020 group stages — the last time they met at a major tournament.
Pot 4 is where a potential banana skin comes into view. Should FIFA place the playoff-winning sides in this pot, then it means Italy would be a potential opponent, should they successfully reach the World Cup. Potential European opponents in this pot also include: Turkey, Poland, Denmark, and Ukraine.
Remember the caveat, though, England can only be drawn with one other European side, meaning a truly disastrous group is unlikely to come to fruition, and why avoiding Morocco in Pot 2 would be beneficial.
Why England are on track for Messi’s Argentina in semifinals?
I know what you’re thinking: How can England be on course to get Argentina in the semifinals before the draw has been made and without a ball being kicked?!
For every previous World Cup you would be right, but 2026 is different.
FIFA has announced that the four highest-ranked nations — Spain, Argentina, France and England — will be placed in separate sections of the 2026 draw. If all four run the table in the group stage, they will be kept apart until the semifinals in the expanded World Cup.
Fourth-seeded England are “paired” with third-ranked France in opposite halves of the bracket, meaning a meeting between them would only be possible in the final at MetLife Stadium — avoiding a repeat of their quarterfinal clash in Qatar.
However, England could face European champions Spain or world champions Argentina — themselves paired and kept apart until July 19 — one round earlier, in the semifinals.
Again, these scenarios, in which the highest-ranked teams effectively anchor four separate mini-tournaments on the road to the semis, only apply if all four top their groups.
