College football betting: Ascending Alabama looks like class of SEC

I was wrong about the Alabama Crimson Tide.

I expected all the problems we saw early — protection issues, lack of run identity, inconsistency on the road — to be major roadblocks. I thought those flaws would linger and cost them in the SEC grind, which is why I pegged them to miss the playoff.

But they have done what elite programs do: adapt, evolve and rise. And now, the Crimson Tide are the rightful favorites to win the conference.

That opening loss to Florida State felt like confirmation of every preseason doubt; 17 points, eight penalties, no rhythm. But since then, Alabama has rebuilt itself piece by piece into something sharper and steadier. Quarterback Ty Simpson has gone from cautious to commanding, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt over his past four games against solid competition. The offense is balanced, explosive and efficient and has found its rhythm, buoyed by a run game that has caught up enough to sustain drives.

Defensively, the Tide have cleaned up everything that went wrong early. The front seven is not vintage Alabama, but the coverage unit has locked in, keeping opponents under 7 yards per pass since Week 1. They are winning third downs, forcing turnovers and staying composed in pressure spots.

The biggest shift, however, is in discipline. Penalties dropped, turnovers disappeared and time of possession flipped from barely 29 minutes in the opener to nearly 36 through October. That is the sign of a mature football team.

This is not the same Alabama I was betting against in August. This is a team that rediscovered its core identity: efficient, composed, opportunistic. What started as a stumble has turned into a climb. At 6-1, Alabama is firmly part of the playoff conversation.

Shuffling through the SEC

Which brings us to the bigger picture: how Alabama stacks up in the SEC.

Both Texas A&M and Alabama are 4-0 in conference play, with Georgia right behind at 4-1. Alabama has separated itself among the three. The gap is not massive, but it is real. Alabama has the best quarterback in the conference, the most discipline and the sharpest trend line in terms of improvement.

Georgia still has the better front seven and a steadier run game, but its offense lacks the vertical punch Alabama now leans on. Texas A&M, meanwhile, has shown flashes, but the defensive splits and inconsistencies against top competition reveal a ceiling that sits just below Alabama’s.

The Tide may have rebuilt themselves from that Week 1 loss, and they are absolutely a contender for the Playoff, but I am not ready to put them in the national title conversation. The run defense and lack of dominance in the trenches are still concerns. A true national title contender controls the line of scrimmage against elite teams, and Alabama is not quite there.

Best bet to win the SEC?

From a betting perspective, this version of Alabama has been one of the most reliable teams in the country. The Crimson Tide are 5-1-1 against the spread, consistently outperforming market expectations. Their games ahead are far more manageable than earlier perceived. South Carolina is not the same team many projected, LSU is battling offensive inconsistency, leaving Oklahoma as the next real test looming, but that matchup comes at home. If this turns into a quarterback duel, I trust Simpson over John Mateer every time. Alabama is ascending, and a +125 market price to win the SEC makes a whole lot of sense. This is looking like an 11-1 team.