AFC West betting preview – Odds and picks for the division

The Kansas City Chiefs have 10 straight seasons of 10-plus wins and have won nine consecutive AFC West titles. Will they keep it up, or is a dip coming?

The Chiefs’ projected win total at ESPN BET is 11.5, tied with the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles for highest number in the league. And Kansas City is again the AFC West favorite, at -120.

But there is real competition for their crown. The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos made the playoffs last season and both are -130 to return for a second straight year. Both have projected win totals of 9.5.

The Las Vegas Raiders remain long shots in the division and are +340 to make the playoffs, but there is excitement around Brock Bowers and Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Ashton Jeanty (+360).

How will things play out this season? Here are the season-long odds for the AFC West teams and our favorite bets.

Division betting previews:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Best bets

Broncos OVER 9.5 wins (+100)

Matt Bowen: The Broncos won 10 games in 2024, and I’m looking at a Denver roster that addressed some key needs on both sides of the ball this offseason. Rookie running back RJ Harvey and tight end Evan Engram give Sean Payton’s offense more juice, while linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and first-year corner Jahdae Barron bring a playmaking element to the defense. In Bo Nix’s second season under Payton, the Broncos hit the over and challenge for the AFC West title.

Pamela Maldonado: I’m buying the Kool-Aid. Denver won 10 games last year despite going 1-6 in one-score games, riding an inefficient Javonte Williams while breaking in a rookie QB. Nix has a year under his belt, the offensive line is elite (maybe even the best in the league), the defense is intact and the run game gets a jolt with Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. The Broncos are favored in 12 of 17 games in what is very manageable schedule. If Nix takes even a small step forward, Denver could be Nix-ing their one-score game problem on the way to double-digit wins.

Raiders OVER 6.5 wins (-140)

Eric Moody: The Raiders could surprise bettors in 2025. Geno Smith brings stability and efficiency at quarterback and ranks among the league’s best deep passers over the past three seasons. Coming off a record-breaking college career, Jeanty adds a dynamic ground game to the offense, giving the Raiders much-needed balance. Pair that with Bowers, who set rookie records for receptions and receiving yards, and the offense looks ready to take a big leap. Head coach Pete Carroll’s energy and defensive end Maxx Crosby’s bounce-back potential make the Raiders frisky enough to clear expectations.

Chargers OVER 9.5 wins (+105)

Moody: Quarterback Justin Herbert is coming off one of his most efficient seasons, throwing for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns and only three interceptions while also adding a career-high 306 rushing yards. Keenan Allen is back in the fold to join Ladd McConkey, and the Chargers reinforced the offense by drafting explosive WR Tre Harris and upgrading at tight end with Tyler Conklin. Rookie RB Omarion Hampton and veteran Najee Harris bolster a power-run scheme designed to unlock Herbert’s deep passing. Even with Rashawn Slater’s injury, the O-line remains strong, and Jim Harbaugh’s winning pedigree gives Los Angeles a clear playoff path.

AFC West odds