Key takeaways:
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XRP closed below $3, but a fractal pattern suggests a bullish Q4 setup, with a potential rally toward $4.35 to $4.85.
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Whale flows remain negative, hinting at near-term downside before possible reaccumulation in the $2.65 to $2.33 range.
XRP (XRP) closed a daily candle below the $3 psychological level on Aug. 19, extending its two-week correction. While near-term seasonality appears bearish, the long-term outlook remains constructive, supported by a recurring market fractal pattern.
A market fractal refers to a repeating price structure observed across different timeframes, where similar setups often yield comparable outcomes. On XRP’s daily chart, the current structure mirrors one observed earlier this year. In January 2025, XRP rallied to $3.40 before correcting steadily to $1.60 in April.
That local bottom emerged after price tapped into liquidity within both a daily and weekly fair value gap (FVG). Higher-timeframe imbalances typically hold more weight, as they highlight areas where higher trader bids and liquidity are concentrated.
In July, XRP rebounded sharply, forming a new local high at $3.66. Currently, the chart outlines a comparable setup, with a fresh FVG visible between $2.32 and $2.66. If this imbalance is filled, the probability of a renewed expansion phase increases, potentially setting the stage for a breakout rally.
Based on the rate of diminishing returns, XRP could see gains of 60–85% in Q4, with upside potential toward $4.35. The critical inflection lies at $3.85, above which XRP would enter price discovery.
Coupled with supportive macroeconomic factors like potential US interest rate cuts, XRP may sustain momentum beyond initial targets, extending the rally over several weeks. While short-term volatility remains likely, the broader structure suggests bullish continuation into Q4.
Related: Price predictions 8/20: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE, XLM
Negative XRP whale flows hint at exhaustion
Recent onchain data shows that large XRP holders, or “whale addresses,” have been reducing their positions, but selling pressure is approaching exhaustion.
A similar wave of selling was observed in Q2, coinciding with XRP’s broader correction. Currently, the 90-day moving average of whale netflows suggests a peak in distribution, which could flip positive as prices trend lower.
Historically, whale activity has played a critical role in shaping market direction. During H2 2024, significant accumulation occurred between $2.00 and $2.50, where whales built sizeable positions ahead of XRP’s rally. A comparable setup may be unfolding, with accumulation zones likely to reemerge around $2.65–$2.33.
Related: XRP’s price downtrend could continue: Here’s 4 reasons why
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
