Washington heads to Camp Randall on Saturday for the Battle of UWs. Both the Huskies and the Badgers come into the game off of byes, but the Huskies have the clear momentum advantage after a decisive win over Illinois in two weeks ago. Wisconsin on the other hand is looking for their first conference win. While the Badgers are double-digit home dogs according to Vegas, they have started to look more competitive towards the end of their tough October slate. After losses to Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State by a combined 95-10 margin, Wisconsin played Oregon within two possessions in a low-scoring affair immediately before their bye week. As with that game, this weekend’s game will likely be determined by the match up between UW’s high-flying offense and Wisconsin’s defense. Let’s run through the keys to the match up.
Head Coach Luke Fickell and Defensive Coordinator Mike Tressel’s defensive backgrounds have molded this unit together far more successfully than the offensive staff. After inheriting a solid defensive unit when they arrived in Madison from Cincinnati back in 2022, the staff has tried to mesh their Even front-based defensive schemes with Wisconsin’s tried-and-true Odd front, 3-4 based personnel. This initially yielded mixed results as the shifted defensive emphasis moved away from big bodies controlling the line of scrimmage to smaller more versatile players. However, the Badgers have shifted back towards their earlier identity emphasizing run defense and control of the line, resulting in a top 25 run defense nationally. Unfortunately for Fickell and Tressel, as the run defense improved this year, the passing defense took a significant step back. After finishing 2024 as the #14 pass defense nationally, the Badgers are now 86th, averaging over 230 yards/game.
Despite all of the changes, from a personnel perspective, Wisconsin’s strength still lies in their LB corps. Front seven defenders such as Christian Alliegro (LB), Mason Reiger (EDGE/OLB), and freshman Mason Posa (LB) will all have key roles in Wisconsin’s game plan. Posa in particular will be an important contributor to keep an eye on. After earning rotational playing time early in the season, Posa broke out against Oregon with 13 total tackles. The linebackers will also have to chip in as pass rushers if the Badgers are going to get pressure on Demond. Wisconsin is tied for 66th in the country in team sack rate, averaging just 2 sacks per game. In our two losses, pass rushing wasn’t necessarily the key factor in stopping our offense, but Demond may light up a depleted Wisconsin secondary if he has ample time in the pocket.
The health and effectiveness of our offensive line may be the deciding factor in this offense vs. defense match up. UW fans saw how big of a difference getting John Mills and Carver Willis back from injury was in the Illinois game, and Illinois likely has a better defense than Wisconsin. A strong performance from our offensive line may not yield huge rushing numbers against a relatively stout Wisconsin run defense, but they may buy Demond time to attack the secondary downfield and opportunities to scramble. They may also be called upon to set up the perimeter run game and the screen game. Moving the point of attack away from Wisconsin’s front seven and picking on their secondary, while also trying to maintain high down-to-down efficiency, should be a key component of the offensive game plan. Wisconsin’s offense is averaging less than seven points per game against P4 opponents (albeit some very good ones), so the offense doesn’t necessarily need to take huge risks to win a shoot out. Controlling the pace of the game and stringing together a few scoring drives while avoiding major mistakes should be enough to secure a Washington victory.