Agadir – Morocco’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.7% in 2025, according to projections released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This positive performance will be primarily driven by a strong recovery in agriculture and followed by non-agricultural sectors, notes the Commission’s 2026 Economic Forecast Budget.
The report further projects that this performance will mark accelerating growth for four years in a row, supported by dynamic and strong demand inside the country, public and private investments and relative price stability.
Agriculture leading the growth
Also according to the HCP report, the Moroccan agricultural sector is expected to play a central role in boosting growth in 2026. Although the 2025–2026 agricultural season began with a notable rainfall deficit, conditions improved significantly from late November due to abundant and well-distributed rainfall.
These favorable conditions are expected to support crop production while contributing to the replenishment of dam reserves and groundwater.
Livestock farming is expected to recover in 2026, driven by improved vegetation and pasture conditions, the implementation of the national livestock recovery program, and the positive impact of the royal decision to suspend the Eid Al-Adha sacrifice in 2025.
Under these assumptions and assuming above-average cereal production, HCP projects agricultural value added to rise by 10.4% in 2026, compared with an estimated 4.5% in 2025.
Fishing activity, which is expected to decline in 2025 due to reduced coastal and artisanal landings, should meanwhile see a slight recovery in 2026.
The primary sector is forecast to grow by 10% in 2026, up from 3.7% in 2025, contributing 1.1 % points to national economic growth, compared with 0.4 points the previous year.
Non-agricultural sectors
Non-agricultural activities include sectors such as industry, construction, and services are expected to continue growing at a solid and stable pace, with growth forecast at 4.3% in 2026, following 4.5% in 2025.
The secondary sector, which includes industry and construction, is expected to grow by nearly 4.2% in 2026, after 4.8% in 2025, maintaining a stable contribution of around 1.1 % points to overall economic growth.
Trade and repair activities, which account for an average of 19.1% of tertiary value added, are projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, benefiting from strong domestic demand and controlled inflation.
The accommodation and food service sector is meanwhile expected to maintain strength after a sharp rebound in 2025, when growth is estimated at 9.7%. HCP projects the sector to continue expanding in 2026, noting that this expansion will be supported by rising tourist arrivals, strong travel receipts, improved destination promotion, and gradual improvements in accommodation capacity and services.
It further forecasts transport and warehousing to grow by 5.3% in 2026, following 4.1% in 2025. According to the report, driving this positive trend will be increased rail traffic, expanding domestic and international air travel, stronger maritime transport activity, and continued improvements in logistics infrastructure.
Meanwhile, GDP growth is projected to ease slightly from 6.7% in 2025 to 6.3% in 2026. HCP expects inflation, which is measured by the GDP implicit price index, to decline to 1.3% in 2026. The corresponding figure in 2025 was 1.9%, thus confirming a context of moderate and controlled price pressures.
HCP’s projections point to a strengthening of Morocco’s economic performance in 2026, assessing that this will be primarily driven by improved agricultural conditions, resilient non-agricultural sectors, sustained domestic demand, and a stable inflation environment.