The global steel market shows fresh signs of imbalance. According to the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity, the gap between global production capacity and actual demand reached 179.6 million tons in the third quarter of 2025.
That marks a 1.4% increase compared to the same period a year earlier.
In its February 2026 monitoring bulletin, the forum places Morocco among the countries where installed steel capacity exceeds domestic demand. The classification comes at a time when global consumption slows and more producers turn to exports to sustain output.
The form explains that the wider gap does not result from a surge in new factories. Capacity has remained broadly stable. The main factor lies in weaker demand worldwide.
Crude steel production fell slightly, yet exports rose. In the third quarter of 2025, exports represented 27.8% of total global steel production. Producers rely more on foreign markets as local markets absorb less.
International prices reflect this pressure. In 2025, export prices for flat steel products fell by 6.7% on average. The report also notes a clear price gap between members of the forum and economies marked by structural overcapacity. Export prices within the forum remain about 1.7 times higher than those in China.
Rising competition across Africa
The forum also draws attention to Africa. In the third quarter of 2025, imports from economies with excess capacity represented 20.5% of regional steel demand. This trend increases competition for local producers.
For Morocco, China stands as a major supplier of steel products, alongside Turkey and several European countries. Competitive pressure affects flat products in particular, as well as some semi-finished goods used in transformation.
Lower international prices place pressure on margins. Local producers face a structural cost gap compared to large Asian manufacturers. The domestic market alone does not offer strong growth to offset that pressure.
Morocco has turned to trade defense tools. The forum notes that anti-dumping investigations opened in October 2024 target certain steel imports, including products from China. Worldwide, 64 new trade defense cases were launched during the first nine months of 2025, most of them anti-dumping measures. Still, the forum indicates that the volumes covered remain small compared to total global trade.
The situation raises a broader question for Morocco’s steel industry. Can the local market absorb existing capacity over time, or must producers seek stronger export positions and deeper regional integration to restore balance?
