Agadir – Credit rating agency Moody’s Ratings has revised the outlook for Morocco from “stable” to “positive” while affirming its Ba1 rating for long-term foreign and local currency debt, reflecting the country’s improved economic performance and stronger fiscal prospects.
The Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance released a statement confirming that Moody’s updated its assessment of Morocco’s sovereign credit outlook while maintaining the country’s Ba1 rating.
According to Moody’s, the shift to a positive outlook reflects the gradual strengthening of the country’s economic and fiscal fundamentals, which is likely to further strengthen its credit profile and pave the way for an improved rating.
Stronger growth and structural reforms
Moody’s linked the improved outlook to stronger economic prospects supported by investment and ongoing reforms.
The agency noted that Morocco’s growth outlook has improved thanks to increased public and private investment as well as structural reforms aimed at transforming the economy and raising its long-term growth potential.
While Morocco’s per capita income remains below that of higher-rated countries, Moody’s believes the combination of stronger growth, economic diversification, and high investment levels indicates a structural improvement in the country’s growth profile.
The agency highlighted that non-agricultural growth has accelerated steadily in recent years and is expected to exceed 5% in 2025, reflecting reduced dependence on the more volatile agricultural sector and enabling more stable economic expansion.
Investment and infrastructure driving momentum
Moody’s also expects Morocco’s growth momentum to remain relatively strong, supported by significant investments in key infrastructure sectors.
These include projects in transport, logistics, energy, and water infrastructure, as well as reforms aimed at improving the business environment and attracting further investment.
According to the agency, such projects should enhance connectivity, improve logistical efficiency, mitigate some climate-related constraints and support the competitiveness of the economy.
Industrial policies are also expected to encourage the development of higher value-added sectors and strengthen export capacity.
Fiscal performance and debt outlook
Improving fiscal performance is another factor behind the positive outlook. Moody’s noted that better budgetary results could help contain Morocco’s public debt burden over the medium term, despite ongoing pressures linked to social spending and major investment needs.
The agency acknowledged that fiscal consolidation remains gradual and faces pressures, particularly due to the rollout of social protection reforms.
But it expects several measures to support public finances, including stronger revenue mobilization, more targeted social spending, reforms to limit potential liabilities from state-owned enterprises, and diversification of funding sources for large investment projects.
If these fiscal trends continue and growth remains strong, Moody’s believes the public debt burden could decline more than previously expected.
Moody’s also emphasized that maintaining the Ba1 rating reflects the resilience of Morocco’s institutional framework and governance.
The agency underlined several factors that still weigh on Morocco’s credit rating, such as relatively low per capita income, exposure to climate-related shocks, and potential liabilities linked to state-owned enterprises and the banking sector.
Despite these risks, the agency concluded that improved growth prospects and continued prudent fiscal policy should reinforce confidence in Morocco’s capacity to manage these challenges while maintaining fiscal space for social and development spending.
