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Dan Graziano
It has been said by some — well, by me, at least — that Week 1 is the Super Bowl for the Overreactions column.
Last year in Week 1, the Patriots beat the Bengals … then didn’t win again until Week 8. The Saints scored 47 points and 44 more in Week 2 … then didn’t win again until Week 10. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, lost 37-20 to the Buccaneers … then reached the NFC Championship Game.
So go ahead and pretend that everything in the NFL is figured out. Assume the Chiefs are done, that the Eagles can’t cover anybody, that the Giants won’t score a touchdown all season and that the Falcons continue to be cursed. It’s Week 1 of an 18-week schedule. You’re almost certainly overreacting.
But that’s what we do here — sort through the weekly overreactions to figure out which ones might hold up and which ones are mirages. Week 1 is tricky because we have so little evidence, but that’s also what makes it so much fun.
Jump to:
Chiefs’ AFC West run is over?
Dolphins drafting No. 1?
Dart to be Giants’ QB1 soon?
Steelers’ offense is playoff-ready?
Packers class of NFC?
The Kansas City Chiefs won’t win the AFC West this season
Friday night’s opener in Brazil didn’t go well for the nine-time defending division champions. The Chiefs lost 27-21 to the rival Chargers. The offense, after losing speedy wideout Xavier Worthy because of a dislocated shoulder on the third play, looked out of sync and nonexplosive. The defense couldn’t slow Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was running for his life a lot like he did last season. A Kansas City team that we expected to come out angry about being embarrassed in the Super Bowl didn’t look much different than in said Super Bowl.
Worthy might have to miss time, and top receiver Rashee Rice is suspended for five more games. To top it off, the AFC West-rival Chargers looked fantastic and now have a game in hand on the Chiefs in what could be an intense three-way race between these two teams and a scary-looking Broncos squad. Not the way Kansas City wants to start its season.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Obviously. This is still the Andy Reid/Mahomes Chiefs. They looked lousy offensively all last season and still went 15-2 and got to a third straight Super Bowl. Should things be tougher this season? Absolutely. And 15-2 doesn’t feel overly repeatable, especially when the first game is a loss. But no team over the past decade has more consistently addressed and solved its problems during the season.
The Chiefs are extremely excited about rookie left tackle Josh Simmons, and he should improve. Rice will be back after Week 6, and Worthy should return at some point. Mahomes still delivered a few patented magical moments, and the Chiefs get three extra days to rest and prepare for their Week 2 game against … checks notes … oh, the Eagles. Perhaps we should revisit this next week.
The Miami Dolphins will be picking first in the 2026 draft … and looking for a QB
I went out on a limb this preseason, thinking that the Dolphins might not be as bad as many thought. Maybe that impulse will eventually be right. After all, Sunday’s 33-8 loss to the Daniel Jones-led Colts was only one game, and it could end up being Miami’s worst game of the season. But hoo boy, this was ugly.
It was 30-0 before Miami finally scored with under seven minutes remaining in the game. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a miserable 14-for-23 for 114 yards, with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble. The defense, which has been hit hard by injury on the back end and lost cornerback Storm Duck because of injury during the game, gave Jones just about everything he wanted. The former Giants’ first-round pick was 22-for-29 for 272 yards and a touchdown pass, and he ran for two more scores. It was a nightmare opener for a Dolphins team that wanted to turn the page on a disappointing 8-9 season in 2024.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Again, I didn’t enter the season expecting Miami to be one of the NFL’s worst teams. But a lot of people did, and I’ve certainly been wrong before. It’s possible the defense never gets fully healthy and looks this vulnerable all season. It’s possible Tagovailoa keeps struggling, though he has generally played well under Mike McDaniel when healthy. This program might never rediscover the promise it showed in 2022 and 2023, when the Dolphins made the playoffs in McDaniel’s first two seasons.
It’s important to note that Tagovailoa has $54 million in fully guaranteed money in 2026 and will almost certainly still be the Dolphins’ starter at least through that season (if healthy). But if this season bottoms out and the Dolphins are picking at or near the top of what’s thought to be a QB-rich draft, it’s not a huge leap to expect them to think about the future at that position.
It was only one game, but it was ugly in all the ways Miami’s doubters feared it would be. And when that happens, even in Week 1, some alarm bells are justified.
Jaxson Dart will be the New York Giants’ starting quarterback by the end of September
You want to talk about looking ugly? I watched the Giants lose 21-6 to the Commanders in person Sunday, and this offense does not look competitive with Russell Wilson running it. Wilson was pressured on 16 of his 45 dropbacks (36%) and handled that pressure quite poorly. He was 2-of-12 for 26 yards and was sacked twice when pressured.
He wasn’t much better when he had time to throw, finishing 17-for-37 for 168 yards. He ran for 44 yards on eight carries, mainly scrambles to get away from said pressure. The Giants moved the ball at times and got into some goal-to-go situations but could not score a touchdown. New York had 231 total yards, averaged 4 yards per pass attempt and 3.2 yards per rush. The best thing you can say about the Giants’ offense Sunday is that the unit didn’t turn the ball over. Yet, the Giants still lost by 15.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Giants coach Brian Daboll doesn’t want to be pressured into starting Dart, his first-round rookie quarterback, before he’s ready. Daboll doesn’t want Dart to feel that pressure, either. But when asked after the game whether Wilson would start next week in Dallas, Daboll wasn’t definitive.
What we know is that the Giants made Dart their No. 2 quarterback Sunday, which means they trusted him to go into the game and run their offense if something had happened to Wilson. We also know they’ve worked with Dart on some specific packages (but those were implemented Sunday) that would take advantage of his running ability. Dart looked fantastic in the preseason, and though the regular season is a different story and the Giants have a daunting early schedule, his athleticism would potentially add some juice that Wilson doesn’t offer at this point in his career.
Dart will start sooner or later. Daboll and the Giants’ coaches have been methodical about their development plan for him and do not want to accelerate it because the offense is struggling. But Dart might be the better option now. And perhaps he could handle the responsibility.
The Pittsburgh Steelers finally have an offense that can help them advance past the wild-card round of the playoffs
Aaron Rodgers’ Steelers debut was a thriller. Rodgers rolled into MetLife Stadium to play the Jets, who released him this spring after two very disappointing seasons. He threw four touchdown passes, and the Steelers stole a victory after Chris Boswell nailed a 60-yard field goal late in their 34-32 win.
In a game between teams we thought would want to slow things down and lean on their run games, Rodgers and his New York replacement, Justin Fields, delivered a breathless shootout. The Jets seemed to have things under control, leading 26-17 in the fourth quarter, but a fumbled kickoff after a Pittsburgh touchdown set up Rodgers to put the Steelers ahead with 14:07 left. Even after Fields led the Jets on a go-ahead touchdown drive, Pittsburgh still got into position for Boswell to win it with a monster kick.
The Steelers scored more than 34 points twice last season with Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback. So, Sunday’s performance surely has Steelers fans dreaming big about an offense that hasn’t scored in this manner since Ben Roethlisberger was quarterback.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I mean … really? Yes, 34 points is great. But this was a long way from a playoff game, and the Steelers took advantage of some serious gifts. The Jets outgained them 394 yards to 271, committed seven penalties and produced the game’s only turnover at a pivotal time. And the Steelers still needed a 60-yard field goal to win. Play that game in Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City in January, and you ain’t winning it.
Be encouraged that this Steelers offense might be more consistently productive and exciting than in 2024, but don’t be sold. And don’t gloss over the fact that the defense, which is supposed to be the constant in Pittsburgh, couldn’t stop Fields and the Jets.
Rodgers hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2020 season, and he’ll be 42 when this year’s playoffs start. Great game, great start, but it will take a lot more for me to be convinced that the Steelers can reverse their recent trend of playoff fizzle-outs.
You might argue for the Colts or Chargers, but no team looked better through the Sunday afternoon games to me than the Packers, who swallowed up the Lions on both sides of the ball and made a strong early statement with a 27-13 victory. Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is in his second season with the team, and Year 2 in a new scheme generally will produce a big improvement.
Holding the defending division champion Lions to a late touchdown and 246 total yards is no joke. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love was efficient, three Packers players scored touchdowns and Micah Parsons was clearly a factor despite playing limited snaps. The Lions should be fine, but the Packers needed this one and they got it with authority.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Packers were my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and nothing I saw Sunday makes me waver. Last season (including playoffs), Green Bay went 0-6 in games against the Lions, Vikings and Eagles — the NFC’s top three teams in the regular season — and 11-1 against everyone else.
The 2024 Packers were on the edge of greatness, but couldn’t beat the conference’s best teams. They had the youngest roster in the league last season and do again this year, but they’re deep and talented with highly skilled playcallers on both sides of the ball. And a Week 1 victory over the Lions — particularly a dominant one like Sunday — is what the Packers needed to get their season off to a confidence-fueled start.
