It’s never too early to look at the numbers if you’re thinking about betting on games, right?
Week 12 gets underway with the Buffalo Bills (-4.5) visiting the Houston Texans as road favorites on “Thursday Night Football.”
Sunday afternoon gives us several intriguing games, with the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears (-3) and the Indianapolis Colts hitting the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) in the early round of games. The late window features a matchup of NFC East rivals when the Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) close out the slate on “Sunday Night Football,” and the week wraps up with the Carolina Panthers visiting the San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) on “Monday Night Football.”
So which games offer early betting appeal?
Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Pamela Maldonado and Ben Solak looked at the early Week 12 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.
Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears to cover -3 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bowen: The Steelers could be without Aaron Rodgers (wrist), which changes things. Plus, this Bears team is building an offensive identity, starting with the run game, and Dennis Allen’s defense plays opportunistic football. I’ll take the Bears at home to cover the three points.
Last week: Bengals +5.5 at Steelers (Steelers won, 34-12)
New York Giants-Detroit Lions to go OVER 50.5 points (-105)
Karabell: Yeah, I saw what the Lions did in windy Philadelphia on Sunday night, scoring only one touchdown, and I wasn’t surprised. The Lions are merely an average team under Dan Campbell when playing outdoors in challenging weather, especially versus good teams. Jared Goff is an average quarterback in those conditions. In Week 12, the Lions will not be average, because they are playing in their own climate-controlled party stadium with no wind and they are not facing the blossoming Philadelphia Eagles defense. They face the Giants, who are not blossoming at all. In Week 2, the Lions scored 52 points on the Bears, who are currently winning their division. Just two weeks ago, the Lions ripped the Washington Commanders for 44 points. There’s nothing wrong with the Lions at home. They’re scoring plenty in Week 12 — probably more than 40 on their own.
Jacksonville Jaguars-Arizona Cardinals to go OVER 47.5 (-115)
Maldonado: Both defenses tell on themselves every week. The Jags give up chunk plays and fold in the red zone, while the Cardinals defense has been a turnstile against anyone with a functioning offense. Pair that with two offensive units that can put together drives, convert on third downs and hit explosive plays, and you’re looking at a game script that naturally tilts high. Jacoby Brissett is steady enough to keep Arizona on schedule, and Trevor Lawrence has consistently produced in shootout environments against soft fronts. Neither defense matches up well with the other’s strengths, making the number simply too low for two teams routinely landing the high-scoring range.
Last week: Bears-Vikings under 48.5 (Bears won, 19-17)
Buffalo Bills-Houston Texans to go UNDER 43.5 (-110)
Solak: Home unders are nails for DeMeco Ryans’ Texans team, and on a short week with all of their playoff hopes resting on this key game against Buffalo, I expect an enormous performance from one of the league’s top defenses. Buffalo just exploded for 44 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I’m highly suspicious that high-leverage targets to Gabe Davis and Mecole Hardman are the features of a healthy offense in 2025. Watch this line throughout the week — if C.J. Stroud plays, it could cross the key number of 44, at which point I would be interested in hitting it again.
Last week: Dolphins -2.5 vs. Commanders (Dolphins won, 16-13)
New Orleans Saints ML (Even) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Solak: The Falcons are an automatic fade this week, having played consecutive overtime games (with an overseas trip in the middle) and now staring down a divisional road contest potentially without their starting quarterback and top receiver. Michael Penix Jr. will almost certainly be out for this game, and if Drake London can’t go, I struggle to see how the Falcons find any success through the air. Having lost five straight and fallen out of the NFC playoff picture, the Falcons are on quit watch.
