Donald Trump isn’t on any of the cards today, but his presidency and policies are one of the key things people are voting on. As millions of Americans cast their ballots in gubernatorial and local elections across New Jersey, Virginia, and New York, President Donald Trump faces a pivotal moment.
The nation is now entering the 35th day of a government shutdown — tying the longest in US history — as frustration mounts over stalled negotiations in Washington and uncertainty about the administration’s next move.
The lengthy standoff between President Donald Trump and congressional Democratic leaders is poised to become the longest government shutdown in American history this week.
Election Day on Tuesday, when voters will head to the polls in Virginia, New Jersey and New York, will tie the record for the longest shutdown.
If the shutdown continues into Wednesday, which lawmakers believe is almost certain, it will shatter that record, set during Trump’s first term. That 35-day federal closure in late 2018 and early 2019 resulted from a fight over Trump’s demand for a border wall, which Democrats refused to fund.
Why is this election seen as a test for Trump?
Tuesday’s elections mark the first major public verdict on President Trump’s second term, with voters in key states heading to the polls amid a prolonged political standoff that has left federal workers unpaid and critical services stalled.
Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, alongside a New York City mayoral race and a California redistricting initiative, offer early signs of how Americans are reacting to Trump’s leadership — and whether public dissatisfaction might translate into political change.
“There are plenty of reasons not to read too much into these races,” analysts caution, noting that opposition voters often turn out in higher numbers during early cycles. Still, the results will serve as a barometer of political mood heading into next year’s crucial midterm elections.
What does the shutdown mean for Trump’s presidency?
The 35-day federal shutdown — triggered by Donald Trump’s standoff with congressional Democrats over spending priorities — has already tied the record set during his first term in 2018–2019. If it extends another day, it will become the longest in US history.
Trump’s administration remains defiant, with the president insisting that “pain for millions” will end only when Democrats concede. Speaking to 60 Minutes, Trump maintained that the impasse was “a necessary stand for America’s future,” even as polls show growing discontent.
Critics, however, describe the crisis as a self-inflicted wound, emblematic of a presidency defined by confrontation. As Trump “blasts suspected cartel speedboats out of the oceans” and “sends troops into American cities,” observers note a growing pattern of executive overreach.
How are Democrats positioning themselves?
Democrats, buoyed by anger over the shutdown and the president’s polarising rhetoric, are rallying voters around issues of affordability, healthcare, and governance. In New Jersey, Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, has directly tied her campaign to opposition against Trump.
“He’ll do whatever Trump tells him to do, and I will fight anybody to work for you,” Sherrill declared during her debate with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, branding him a “Trump clone.”
Former President Barack Obama, campaigning in support of Sherrill, delivered one of the party’s sharpest rebukes yet of Trump’s record.
“There is absolutely no evidence that Republican policies have made life better for the people in New Jersey,” Obama said. “They have devoted enormous energy to entrenching themselves in power, punishing their enemies, enriching their friends, silencing their critics… But what they haven’t done is help you.”
Can Trump’s political wall hold in New Jersey and Virginia?
If the Trump political wall begins to crumble, observers say the first cracks could appear in New Jersey, where Ciattarelli faces a difficult balance: energising Trump’s base while appealing to moderate voters uneasy about the president’s style.
Ciattarelli has defended his alignment with Trump on policy grounds: “He’s right about securing the border; inflation is much lower than under Biden; he halted offshore wind; he’s pushing back on New York’s congestion pricing; and he quadrupled the SALT deduction.”
But analysts note that Ciattarelli’s path is tougher than that of Glenn Youngkin, the Virginia Republican who won four years ago during an anti-Democratic wave. “The cultural issues that helped propel Youngkin to Richmond appear to have lacked the same resonance for Republicans this fall,” one expert observed.
What do experts say the results could reveal?
According to Kristoffer Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, local factors like “utility rates and property taxes” are driving the New Jersey race. However, he added, the contest could provide broader lessons about the national mood.
“New Jersey has arguably moved to the right over the last couple of election cycles,” Shields said. “It’s going to be really interesting to see if that continues in this race or if the reaction to the Trump presidency pushes it back to the left.”
For Democrats, Shields suggested, the challenge lies in unity: “Whether the fractured Democratic Party is able to come together and really drive turnout for a fairly moderate candidate is a key question.”
On the Republican side, he added, the results could test the transferability of Trump’s charisma. “There is a sense that Trump Republicans show up to vote for Trump, but don’t always show up when other Republicans are at the top of the ticket.”
Could shifting demographics reshape the outcome?
In 2024, Trump made measurable gains among Black and Hispanic voters, fuelling Republican hopes of a long-term realignment. The question now is whether that support will endure without Donald Trump himself on the ballot.
In Passaic County, New Jersey — where Latinos make up around 43% of the population — Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly three points last year, after losing the same area by 16 points in 2020. Yet analysts caution that enthusiasm may wane in his absence.
A larger-than-expected Republican drop-off could signal the limits of Trump’s appeal, especially amid criticism of his immigration policies and the faltering economy.
What happens next?
Should Democrats notch strong wins tonight, the results may fall on deaf ears inside the Oval Office. Donald Trump has long surrounded himself with loyalists who tell him what he wants to hear — “a Cabinet of yes-men and yes-women,” as critics put it.
Still, political tides are hard to resist. As one observer noted, “American politics never stands still, even for a president like Trump who tries to defy it.”
If Trump weathers the storm with minimal losses, he will once again demonstrate his remarkable political durability. But if tonight’s elections swing decisively against him, the message from voters will be unmistakable: the Trump era may be entering its most fragile phase yet.
