Gold (GC=F), silver (SI=F), and bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged on Monday as investors sought a hedge against rising debt and political uncertainty in developed markets.
Gold futures (GC=F) neared $4,000 per troy ounce on Monday to touch a fresh record, while silver futures (SI=F) also jumped to $48.50 per ounce, less than two dollars away from a 1980 intraday high. Meanwhile, bitcoin jumped about 2% to touch a fresh record north of $125,790 per token.
The market action highlighted the so-called “debasement trade,” which refers to investors shifting into assets to guard against what they see as the erosion of fiat currencies’ value from inflation, heavy government spending, and mounting debt financed by money creation.
Over the weekend, JPMorgan analysts noted the rise in precious metals and cryptocurrencies against the backdrop of what they called “dollar debasement.” The US dollar index (DX.Y.NYB) is down more than 9% year to date.
Meanwhile, fiscal uncertainty in some developed markets has driven a flight to safe-haven assets. In an unexpected election outcome in Japan over the weekend, Sanae Takaichi was set to become the country’s next prime minister. Market analysts view Takaichi as a “fiscal dove,” supporting government stimulus to grow the economy.
Takaichi’s election indicates “how much of the developed world is pivoting into a ‘Run It Hot’ fiscal dominance framework, carrying monster deficits in order to try and outgrow debt,” Nomura Securities analyst Charlie McElligott said in a note on Monday morning.
“Accordingly, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin are again simultaneously moving to fresh ATH’s as the chief winners in this latest escalation of the … ‘Debasement Trade,’ alongside equities then too ripping to record highs as well,” he added.
Gold and silver have surged more than 50% and 60% year to date, respectively, as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have boosted the appeal of metals, which tend to perform better when interest rates are lower.
Meanwhile, bitcoin is up roughly 33% year to date as the world’s largest cryptocurrency kicked off October, its seasonally strongest month of the year, soaring from $118,000 to $125,000 over the past week.
“The ongoing US government shutdown has amplified Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative, with investors increasingly rotating from U.S. related assets like treasuries into assets seen as resilient to political dysfunction and inflationary pressure,” Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto exchange VALR, said in a note.
