By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As both traditional and crypto markets await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, some unrelated news hit the wires, underscoring gold’s appeal as a universal haven.
The Financial Times reported that Tether, the issuer of world’s largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, is considering a serious play in the gold industry. CEO Paolo Ardoino has said the metal is safer than any government currency, calling it a perfect complement to bitcoin.
If the report, which cited people familiar with the talks, comes to fruition, it could mean crypto is about to become a bigger part of gold’s reflexive bullish cycle. The precious metal is already soaking up strong bids globally as sticky inflation, fiscal headaches and concerns over central bank independence weigh on investor. Countries are trimming their U.S. Treasury holdings and scooping up gold as a safer, sanctions-proof haven.
Tether’s interest could also boost the appeal of Tether Gold , which is issued by its affiliate company TG Commodities. Each XAUT represents ownership of one fine troy ounce of physical gold and was recently price around $3,560.
Meanwhile, the prospects for bitcoin , ether (ETH) and the wider crypto market are likely to be determined by the jobs report.
“A weak print will cement expectations for a 25bps rate cut, likely softening the dollar and easing Treasury yields, which will be positive for risk assets, including crypto,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email. “But the real risk is a strong report: even a modest upside surprise could unwind dovish positioning, send yields higher, and pressure BTC and ETH back toward their support levels.”
In other key news, institutional activity points to interest broadening beyond BTC and ETH. DeFi Development Corp. recently bought over 196,000 Solana tokens, establishing a treasury worth some $427 million. And Thumzup Media, backed by Donald Trump Jr., said it acquired $1 million of BTC, along with new purchases of DOGE, LTC, SOL and XRP.
In traditional markets, the MOVE index spiked, signaling increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, which could lead to financial tightening and weigh on risk assets. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Macro
- Sept. 5, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July producer price inflation data.
- PPI MoM Prev. -1.25%
- PPI YoY Prev. 3.24%
- Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August employment data.
- Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 75K vs. Prev. 73K
- Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
- Government Payrolls Prev. -10K
- Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -11K
- Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases August employment data.
- Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9%
- Employment Change Est. 7.5K vs. Prev. -40.8K
- Sept. 5: S&P 500 Rebalance update released after market close. Strategy (MSTR) is one of the companies being considered for inclusion in the index.
- Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics releases August consumer price inflation data.
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.28%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.11% vs. Prev. 4.9%
- Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: El Salvador’s Statistics and Census Office releases August consumer price inflation data.
- Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.33%
- Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.14%
- Sept. 5, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July producer price inflation data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market, $0.19
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
- Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
- Uniswap DAO is voting to establish “DUNI,” a Wyoming DUNA as its legal entity, preserving decentralized governance while enabling off-chain operations and liability protections, with $16.5M in UNI for legal/tax budgets and $75K UNI for compliance. Voting ends Sept. 8.
- Uniswap DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS Growth Plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided distribution. The proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “no result, no reward” model. Voting ends Sept. 9.
- Unlocks
- Sept. 9: Sonic (S) to unlock 5.02% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 million.
- Sept. 11: Aptos to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.86 million.
- Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $15.66 million.
- Sept. 15: Sei to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.01 million.
- Sept. 16: Arbitrum to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $46.05 million.
- Token Launches
- Sept. 5: WORLDSHARDS (SHARDS) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Gate.io and others.
- Sept. 5: Boost (BOOST) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget, MEXC, BitMart, and others.
- Sept. 8: Openledger (OPEN) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC and others.
- Sept. 8: OlaXBT (AIO) to be listed on Binance Alpha and others.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The memecoin sector had shown signs of fading earlier this year, particularly after the short-lived hype cycles around tokens like TRUMP and MELANIA in January. Those launches briefly captured attention, but failed to sustain momentum, reinforcing the perception that the memecoin trade was exhausted after 2023’s frenzy.
- Both subsequently slumped. TRUMP is now 88% lower and and MELANIA is down 95% despite being touted by the U.S. president and first lady in January.
- However, there’s a new kid on the block: MemeCore, a layer-1 blockchain solely focused on transitioning memecoins from speculative assets to something that has utility in decentralized finance (DeFi).
- The platform’s native token, M, has risen by 261% in the past week despite a wider market pullback.
- The flurry of activity can also be tied to the MemeX liquidity festival, which offers $5.7 million in rewards to traders. It’s worth noting that 85% of the trading volume has taken place on decentralized exchange PancakeSwap, indicating significant retail flows as opposed to on-chain utility.
- While some may argue this is just another flash in the pan, the surge demonstrates just how quickly memecoin sentiment can shift.
- The positive sentiment around MemeCore could find a way of moving back to Solana-based memecoin platform Pump.fun, whose $15.8 million in daily revenue in January has tumbled to between $1.5 million and $2.5 million this week.
Derivatives Positioning
- Ether’s open interest in USDT and dollar-denominated perpetual contracts on major exchanges declined to 1.93 million ETH, a four-week low. This capital outflow raises questions about the sustainability of ETH’s nearly 18% gain over the period.
- Except for LINK and BTC, open interest declined across the top 10 tokens. OI in major Solana perpetuals slipped below 11 million SOL, threatening to invalidate the four-week uptrend.
- BTC futures activity on the CME remains subdued, but options are heating up, with open interest rising to 47.23K BTC, the highest since April. The notional OI has risen to $5.21 billion, the most since November. Some traders have been buying cheap out-of-the-money puts, prepping for a potential hotter-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report.
- Consistent with trends on offshore exchanges, Ether’s futures open interest on the CME slipped below 2 million ETH, while the three-month annualized premium rose from 5% to 7%.
- On Deribit, BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls across all tenors, pointing to downside concerns.
- The seven-day volatility risk premium has retraced nearly to zero, suggesting that the implied volatility for seven days is now roughly equal to the realized volatility. In other words, investors aren’t expecting a premium to hedge against future volatility spikes, despite the U.S. jobs data due later today.
- In ETH’s case, puts are trading at a premium to calls out to the end-November expiry.
- Block flows on the OTC desk at Paradigm have been mixed, with a BTC $116K call lifted alongside an ether $4K put.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.71% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $112,306.62 (24hrs: +1.4%)
- ETH is up 2.14 at $4,398.33 (24hrs: -0.19%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.85% at 4,050.32 (24hrs: +0.28%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.88%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6425% annualized) on KuCoin
- DXY is down 0.35% at 98.00
- Gold futures are unchanged at $3,609.80
- Silver futures are unchanged at $41.42
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.03% at 43,018.75
- Hang Seng closed up 1.43% at 25,417.98
- FTSE is up 0.26% at 9,241.13
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.18% at 5,356.16
- DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.77% at 45,621.29
- S&P 500 closed up 0.83% at 6,502.08
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.98% at 21,707.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.57% at 28,915.89
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,770.29
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.5 bps at 4.161%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.21% at 6,524.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.5% at 23,787.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,664.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.73% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03914 (0.82%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 973 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $52.48
- Total Fees: 4.86 BTC / $537,022
- CME Futures Open Interest: 133,775 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.6 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.92%
Technical Analysis
- The ether-bitcoin (ETH) ratio is looking to top the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. Crossovers above the cloud are said to confirm a bullish shift in momentum.
- The pair has already topped the descending trendline, characterizing the three-year-long downward trend.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $306.80 (+1.49%), +1.53% at $311.49 in pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $117.49 (-0.82%), +0.54%% at $118.12
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.91 (-6.07%), +1.27% at $23.20
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $49.01 (-9.68%), +1.27%% at $49.63
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.11 (-4.91%), +1.52% at $15.34
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.16 (-2.16%), +1.98% at $13.42
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $113.62 (+0.29%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.08 (-3.81%), +1.1% at $9.18
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.17 (-4.98%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.17 (-0.08%), +2.84% at $25.00
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $327.59 (-0.81%), +2.2% at $334.86
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $13.62 (+0.29%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.43 (-8.26%), +2.53% at $15.82
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.33 (-4.52%), +2.69% at $6.50
- Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.27 (-5.74%), +1.87% at $4.35
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$222.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.63 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$167.3 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.19 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.52 million
Source: Farside Investors
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows the Solana memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s purchases of its native token, PUMP.
- The platform snapped up $12,192,383 in PUMP tokens last week, offsetting the total circulating supply by over 5%.
While You Were Sleeping
- Stablecoin Group Tether Holds Talks to Invest in Gold Miners (Financial Times): Tether, which already holds $8.7 billion in gold bars, is considering investments across the gold supply chain, with its CEO saying the metal is a complement to bitcoin.
- Bitcoin Bulls Should Keep an Eye Out for Spike In Key Bond Market Index (CoinDesk): The recent sharp rise in the MOVE index, a key gauge of volatility in U.S. Treasuries, often signals tighter liquidity, which curbs demand for risk assets such as bitcoin.
- Bitcoin Hits $113K as BTC Dominance Approaches Two-Week High of 59% (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s move came as $3.28 billion in options expired at 08:00 UTC on Deribit near Friday’s $112,000 “max pain” point, where options buyers face the biggest losses.
- Hong Kong’s Digital Bond Market Gains Steam With Fresh Offerings (Bloomberg): Digital bonds, debt securities that use the blockchain for issuance, trading and settlement, are gaining traction in Hong Kong, with the government offering subsidies of up to HK$2.5 million ($320,500) per offering.
- Venezuelan Military Aircraft Fly Near U.S. Warship in ‘Provocative Move’, Pentagon Says (Reuters): Venezuela’s action followed two days after a U.S. strike on a Venezuelan boat allegedly carrying narcotics killed 11, an act criticized by some legal scholars and one Democratic congresswoman.
- Bitcoin Crash Brewing? Trader Plans Bids at $94K, $82K for Potential Market Freakout (CoinDesk): The president of Spectra Markets sees bitcoin at an inflection point, citing fading bullish drivers, a bearish double top and halving cycle history as reasons for placing bids at $94,000 and $82,000.
In the Ether
