We are through Week 10 of the 2025 NFL regular season, and while the 2026 draft is still months away, it’s never too early to take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams — using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, ESPN’s FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model’s team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team’s average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions are currently giving the Titans the first pick in back-to-back years, but who is behind them in the top 10? Where could teams with two first-round picks — including the Jets after the Sauce Gardner trade — end up selecting? Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 11.
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Average draft position: 2.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 36.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.0%
Average draft position: 3.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 26.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 82.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 97.8%
Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 69.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 95.7%
Average draft position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 63.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93.6%
Average draft position: 5.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 89.8%
Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 79.1%
Average draft position: 8.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.9%
Average draft position: 8.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 70.4%
Average draft position: 10.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 55.0%
Average draft position: 10.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 58.3%
Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 49.4%
Average draft position: 11.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.0%
Average draft position: 12.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 35.0%
Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.9%
Average draft position: 16.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.5%
Average draft position: 17.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.8%
Average draft position: 18.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.1%
Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.6%
Average draft position: 20.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.6%
Average draft position: 22.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.1%
Average draft position: 23.5
Average draft position: 23.7
Average draft position: 24.0
Average draft position: 24.1
Average draft position: 24.2
Average draft position: 24.9
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 25.1
Average draft position: 25.2
Average draft position: 26.9
Average draft position: 26.7
Average draft position: 27.1
