ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you’ve made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.
Last week, favorites went 11-2 straight up and against the spread. However, the two underdog wins knocked out 39% of remaining Eliminator Challenge entries, the second-most devastating week of the season. The Cincinnati Bengals loss knocked out 20% of the field as they were the most-selected team last week. The Atlanta Falcons also lost as the fourth-most popular pick.
However, this column survives another week as the Indianapolis Colts won easily over the lowly Tennessee Titans. Less than 8% of ESPN entries remain active entering Week 9.
This week features four high-end options. The Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions are all big favorites, and none are likely to be favored by this much the rest of the season. There’s no reason to pivot elsewhere as there is a massive drop-off in win equity, so pick your favorite of the four.
This column’s pick will be the Rams, who are the most popular selection for a reason.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
This is the second-most lopsided matchup the rest of the season according to ESPN Analytics. While the Rams have some future value, including Week 13 in Carolina, that isn’t enough reason to pass up this much win probability. The biggest reason to pivot elsewhere is selection rate, as the Rams will be the most popular pick. However, the time to eat that chalk is on a 14.5-point favorite that ESPN Analytics doesn’t project to be favored by more than seven the rest of the season.
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 83%
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Mike Clay chance to win: 91%
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ESPN BET line: Rams -14.5 (-1400 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 28% selected
The Titans are one of the most obvious fades each week as they rank last in offensive efficiency and 31st in defensive efficiency. That’s why the Chargers are the second-biggest favorites this week by each model, even though they are tied for third in the betting odds. The Chargers have one more prime matchup after this week (Week 13 vs. Raiders), and they are also a potential option next week (vs. Steelers), but they have minimal future value outside of that.
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 74%
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Mike Clay chance to win: 88%
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ESPN BET line: Chargers -9.5 (-550 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 18% selected
The Packers are the second-biggest favorites based on the betting odds. The Panthers are 4-4, but they are 1-3 on the road, beating only the Jets. Bryce Young is dealing with an ankle injury, and Andy Dalton posted the lowest Total QBR of any quarterback last week, so the Panthers should struggle to move the ball again. Green Bay has a few more appealing matchups, including Week 11 (at Giants), Week 12 (vs. Vikings) and Week 14 (vs. Bears). They have a similar remaining schedule to the Lions, but their matchup this week is slightly easier, so they slot ahead of Detroit.
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 76%
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Mike Clay chance to win: 86%
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ESPN BET line: Packers -12.5 (-1000 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
Both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay rank this as the easiest matchup the rest of the season for Detroit, and they will be significantly less popular than the other top favorites. The Lions have also dominated this series, winning and covering all eight meetings under Dan Campbell. They are a sneaky option, especially if you want to avoid the chalk. Keep an eye on the status of J.J. McCarthy, as the Lions would rise up the list if undrafted rookie Max Brosmer has to start for Minnesota.
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 75%
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Mike Clay chance to win: 85%
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ESPN BET line: Lions -8.5 (-550 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected
Other options:
